The UAE are showing signs of becoming the next country in the Middle-east where the leadership is challenged by protesters demanding reform. Social media plays, just as in the other countries, an important role.
The main pillars of massprotests in the Middle-East -Tunesia, Egypt, Syria, Bahrein etc- is a call for more democracy, fueled by bad economic circumstances and a lack of oppurtunity, especially amongst young adults who tend to make up the majority of the population in those countries and who have knowledge and acces to lots of new media technologies like cellphones and internet showing them the exploits of a western consumerculture they want as well.
So, when you think about these circumstances, you really don’t think about countries like the United Arab Emirates, with Abu Dhabi and Dubai as the most wellknown rich oilstates. If you want to see a country where the money made plashing trough the streets like in the best Japanese Tsunamifootage, go there. You want 90% of your population being foreign expats with no interest in political upheavel whatsoever, go there.If you want a GDP per capita almost as high as in the Netherlands, UAE is the place to be. If you ar an arab and think, hey, i want to visit a Guggenheim museum in some crazy architectural masterpiece, go there.
Okay, the regime is not very democratic, i mean, very not democratic and social media is big over there too. But if you want politial turmoil and revolution, do’nt go there. Or…
What we tend to forget is that the UAE is made up of SEVEN kingdoms, with only Dubai and Abu Dhabi as economic giants. The other five are not that wealthy and do not benefitthat much from the richness of the big two . Even moreso, the country is becoming more and more urbanised and where former leaders where held accountable by the tribal leaders in all seven kingdoms, the power is becoming more and more centralised in Abu-Dhabi. There is money, there is urbanisation, but with this growing urbanisation of the population the old tribal systems declinn and there is less and less check on the government. They can do as they please, or they think.
Dark clouds are packing as the northern tribes are starting to be a bit pissed off by the south (the coastal regions) taking all the money and running very hard without sharing the wealth. Discrimination is on the rise, ecomomic problems loom.
What does all this have to do with social media? Well, since the UAE has a very centralised form of government, with almost no democratic institutions, dissidents, mainly from those northern tribes are beginning to use social media to criticise the policies of their government. And suprise suprise, the government does not like that, just as Iran, Syria, Tunesia, Libya and Egypt’s governments were not very pleased with it.
Thats okay, they dont have to be best friends, but still you probably think that in reponse to this the UAE leadership has learned from Egypt Tunesia and Lybia that its best to talk with these people in order to prevent problems which will harm business in the south. Not even remotely so: It looks like the UAE leadership chooses the same route the regimes in Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia. They are in no mood of giving in, keeping things calm means keeping things the same way as it is now.Crackdown fast and hard,and if they dont listen? Do it again only harder. And where do you start nowadays? Online ofcourse!
After some halfhearted promises about elections and some economic aid the protesters got fed up and started openly criticising the government, mainly on social media. Amongst hem not only unemployed youth, but also Bin Ghaith, a economics professor, who openly criticised the economic policies. He, and also another wellknown blogger Ahmed Mansoor where arrested
The question is if this is the start of a major crackdown and secondly, is it going to work. I believe it will not and the reason is simple. Social media is only the medium. When the real issues are not adressed and the government doesnt listen to the first voices heard through social media, then later on the internet can become a real breeding ground for revolt and a communication tool for a crowd than cannot be contained anymore without drastic measures.This can work, look at Syria, Bahrein and Iran. But in Egypt and Tunesia it failed, and in Libya the situation is totally out of control with the leadership without any international cloud left.
So, when things are still quiet, the best thing to do is using social media as a Early Warning System. To keep things calm, business good and other countries taking them serious, the UAE must realise that topdown crackdown does not work any longer. The internet is just to fast and, if people really get pissed of, a place for people to furious to talk.
This post is based on an article in Foreign Policy; The making of a police state,
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